President Donald Trump's poll numbers are a bit all over the place these days. The averages have him about seven points underwater, while some surveys show him down as much as 19. And then, one poll, the most accurate of 2024, has him up one point at 50%.
Likewise, large majorities of Americans say in polls that they want all illegal immigrants deported, but large majorities also say that the Trump administration is going too far in executing this policy.
So, what do the American people actually want?
I traveled to Lexington, Virginia, to get a feel for what the reality is on the ground, below these shaky and inconsistent poll numbers, and what I found was good news and bad news for both parties and a midterm that is still wide open.
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Brian, from nearby Lynchburg, was visiting town with his wife Erin. A chef in his early 50s and a former Republican, he finds Trump's coarseness, and what he would call his racism, such as the recent social media post featuring the Obamas as monkeys, to be a dealbreaker.
Brian was very interesting because, while he knew he could not tolerate Trump, he was also quite forthright about the negative tradeoffs in voting for Democrats. When I asked him, as a business owner, about Virginia's new governor, Abigail Spanberger, his response was telling.
"I voted for her," Brian told me. "Part of me wishes I hadn't had to, but I did, given the alternative."
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The alternative here seemed to be Trump, not former Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, Spanberger's actual opponent, and something that any Republican thinking of running by distancing themselves from Trump should consider. It probably won't work anyway.
I pressed a bit on Spanberger, asking Brian if the wave of new taxes she supports worries him.
"Absolutely it worries me," he said. "I'm a fiscal conservative. I have to balance my budget, and the government should too. But if the alternative is racism, then I have to reject that."
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Never mind that Earle-Sears is African American. Brian was the perfect example of why Democrats focus so much on race and racial issues. For some voters, alleged racism on the president's part will trump even their own policy beliefs and preferences and taint the party he rules.
This phenomenon can also look like fool's gold to pollsters who see a voter with some conservative leanings who should be obtainable. But some, like Brian, just flat-out will never support Trump or the GOP so long as Trump leads it.
As Brian bluntly put it, "If it's men in women's sports or racism, I have to go with men in women's sports."
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But it wasn't all bad news for Trump in rural Virginia. Alice, who is in her 40s and works in real estate, thinks the Trump economic measures are starting to pay off.
"I can just feel it," she told me. "Gas prices are low, more stuff is on sale at the grocery. That's what we voted for."
When I asked about Trump's gruff manner, the one that bothered Brian so much, she just said, "If you aren't used to it by now, you're not getting used to it."
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Others, like Peter, in his 70s and retired, are feeling a real political fatigue. Apathy is the wrong word, but perhaps frustration fits.
"Today, it's like who you vote for is your whole identity," he said. "But I can't fall out of a tree every time Donald Trump opens his mouth."
On Friday afternoon, a small protest of mostly older White people was gathered on a street corner in pretty-as-a-picture Lexington. Annette, the leader and spokesperson, was handing out cookies. Unlike their peers in Minneapolis, they were happy to talk with the press.
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"This is what we feared all along," one man holding the Virginia state flag with its motto, Sic Semper Tyrannis, told me of the Trump administration's handling of Minneapolis. "It's why we have been out here protesting for a year."
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Generally speaking, the huge shifts that pollsters are so ardently looking for appear to exist more in the world of numbers than that of flesh and blood, where it continues to be very rare to meet anyone who has changed their mind politically in the age of Trump.
No, the fear for Republicans today is not that Trump or the party are bleeding support. It's that the Democrats on the ground seem far more motivated to stop Trump than the Republican voters are to reward slow and steady progress.
Importantly, there does not appear to be anything that Trump could do, any position he could soften, be it on immigration enforcement, tariffs or his own rhetoric, that will sway the third of voters who just detest the man. But both Trump and the party have proven they can win without them.
From now until the midterm, we will be in the field with our ear on the ground, listening to the things that voters never tell the pollsters. And if Lexington is any indication, this is still anybody's ballgame.
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